Since it launched in March 2024, the Future of Work (FoW) project has moved from asking how young people in Mombasa County find jobs to building the systems that make good transitions possible in the first place.
Implemented across Kenya's coastal region, with Mombasa as its central focus, the project set out to establish an observatory using skills and jobs methodologies grounded in local, urban and rural realities. Its purpose was to put credible data at the centre of the decisions taken by the public and private actors who shape education and employment policy, and to align training with where the job market is heading.
Two years in, one of the key lessons from the project is that better education-to-work transitions are not built by training more young people alone. They are built by strengthening the systems around them, the evidence base, the policies, the employer relationships, and the institutions that hold it all together. Working with national and county government, employers, training institutions, development partners and young people themselves, FoW has made measurable progress on each front. The report was launched in partnership with GDI, Swahili Pot Hub Foundation and the County Government of Mombasa
Building an Evidence Base Where None Existed
At the onset, the project's first task was to replace guesswork with data. FoW mapped more than 3,300 enterprises, interviewed over 1,500 young people, and identified more than 840 employment opportunities across the region. This helped create a clearer picture of employer demand, youth aspirations and the barriers standing between the two, including the persistent mismatch between what training institutions teach and what employers need. This evidence is now a resource that the government can build on. County and national institutions can institutionalize regular labour market mapping and use it for planning, while non-state actors can draw on the same data to design more responsive programmes, sharpen placement models and target enterprise support where it matters most.
Turning Evidence into Policy and Standards
Data on its own does not change systems; policy does. One of the project's key achievements was supporting the development of the Mombasa County Vocational Training Bill, giving the county a stronger legal foundation for vocational training governance. Working with the Ministry of Labour, the project also helped develop 225 industry-informed National Occupational Standards for the hospitality and tourism sector, a foundational tool for quality assurance, curriculum alignment and workforce planning that did not previously exist at this scale. These standards give government the tools to strengthen governance of the skills system and give non-state actors a clear framework to support through implementation, dissemination, and employer validation.
Anticipating Skills Before the Gap Widens
Rather than reacting to skills shortages after they appear, FoW brought employers, industry experts and trainers together to identify emerging skills needs in hospitality and tourism. Employer demand was translated into practical training priorities and work-readiness requirements, helping training providers adjust course content before graduates enter a market that no longer needs what they were taught.
The approach demonstrated that industry-led skills anticipation can be institutionalized by government, while non-state actors sustain the ongoing dialogue between employers and trainers that keeps the system responsive.
Recognising Where Young People Actually Get Hired
One of the project's most significant findings challenges a common assumption about job creation: micro and informal enterprises are not a marginal source of youth employment; they are the majority source. These businesses accounted for roughly three-quarters of all employment opportunities identified by the project.
That finding has direct implications for how workforce development is designed. Government can simplify how it engages with and supports micro and small enterprises, while non-state actors can strengthen these businesses through business development services, recruitment support and work-readiness programmes tailored to their scale.
Testing a Digital Future for Labour Market Intelligence
To make these gains durable, FoW piloted a prototype Future of Work Observatory, a digital platform demonstrating how real-time labour market information and job matching can support ongoing workforce planning. The prototype makes the case that labour market intelligence should not be a one-off study, but a continuous public function.
Government can now integrate the Observatory into formal planning systems, while non-state actors can contribute data, innovation, technical expertise, and user feedback to keep the platform accurate and useful over time.
What Next?
The project has set clear priorities for sustaining this momentum. State actors are encouraged to institutionalize regular enterprise and youth labour market mapping, embed labour market evidence into skills planning, operationalize vocational training reforms, implement the National Occupational Standards, and deepen collaboration with employers, training institutions and young people.
Non-state actors, in turn, are called on to use labour market evidence to design more responsive programmes, support micro and informal enterprises, strengthen work-readiness and career guidance, co-create placement models with employers, and continue feeding data and learning into the Future of Work Observatory.
